Global Economic downturn, these signals need to be focused on
In the World Economic Outlook report released on the 11th, the IMF kept the global growth rate forecast at 3.2% in 2022, but lowered the growth forecast to 2.7% in 2023. The report predicts that more than one-third of global economies will fall into recession this year or next. Global inflation will peak at the end of 2022.
Since September, the latest economic forecasts released by several major international institutions have lowered the global economic outlook, while also pointing out from different perspectives that countries should work together to strengthen policy responses.
For many emerging market and developing economies, the external environment has become more challenging. The pressure on smaller developing economies has been particularly intense.However, the IMF believes that many of the largest emerging markets are more resilient to external vulnerabilities.
The IMF forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region to grow by 4% this year and 4.3% in 2023, both below the average of 5.5% over the past 20 years.
Still, they are above the IMF forecasts for Europe and the US. The IMF expects eurozone growth of 3.1% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023; US growth of 1.6% this year and 1% next year
The IMF says Southeast Asia is likely to perform strongly over the coming year. Vietnam is expanding from the center of its supply chain diversification efforts, while the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and India are likely to grow at between 4% and 6%.
India has shown a positive attitude in terms of trade policy. India has signed FTAs with Australia and the UAE, a FTA with the UK is expected to be reached next month, and FTAs with the EU and Canada are being actively promoted. the SCO summit in September saw the leaders of India and China meet for the first time since the border conflict, and bilateral ties are showing renewed momentum.
Chinese officials also appear to have been releasing positive signals to the public.
Plans for a dual-circulation economy requiring more domestic production and consumption doesn’t mean the country wants to scale back from globalization, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference during the convening of the CPC 20th National Congress. That means China will continue to open up to the global economy, even as it focuses on more high-quality growth and fostering domestic demand.
whether China's economic policy is uncertain, Some analysts believe that China's economic policy after the 20th National Congress is expected to continue to open up to the outside world and increase exchanges with important international partners in trade. The economic policy after the 20th National Congress is likely to be more continuous rather than changeable.
Professor Jean-Francois Hechet, dean of the French Academy of Oriental Languages, believes that the underlying problem facing China's economy is that China has entered a stage of aging population and shrinking working population. This structural change means that China's natural growth rate is no longer between 8-10%, but about 5%. Jean-Francois Hechet believes that the "Chinese-style modernization path" does not mean abandoning reform and opening up, will still integrate into the world economy, and will not close the borders to foreign investors.
At present, there is still a lot of investment from the EU member states, especially Germany, France. Even if foreign investors raise some problems with the elimination of the epidemic, including China's economic difficulties. But for now, the Chinese market remains a major investment destination for Europe.
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